On the Cards – The Poll Bludger



Liberal maps on how to vote betray few qualms about dealing with the political right, even though One Nation has opposed them in at least one place where it might matter.



With the first postal votes sent out this week, the critical moment arrives for parties to determine their voting card, a much overstated but not entirely insignificant feature of the Australian election campaign. The Liberal Party is the first to emerge from the bloc, whose voting arrangements are set out on the candidates’ pages of its website. These are in most cases symbolic, since Liberal candidate preferences are usually not distributed, but interestingly the Teal Independents were placed last in Warringah, Goldstein and Kooyong, and behind Labor in North Sydney and Curtin (but not Wentworth). More consistently, though not unpredictably, party voting cards put Labor ahead of competing Green candidates.

Liberal Senate tickets have the United Australia Party among the six parties recommended for numbering in every state except (wait for it) Western Australia: Palmer’s party is ranked second in Victoria and Tasmania, third behind the Liberal Democrats in New -South Wales and third behind One Nation in Queensland (the taboo against favoring this party is largely a thing of the past). Pressed about it by The West Australian last month, Scott Morrison said: “I don’t think there will be a deal and it’s certainly not my expectation and it’s certainly not my request.” However, he admitted that it was a “matter for the party organization”, and certainly did not challenge his authority on the matter.

The party’s Queensland ticket provides a useful boost to Pauline Hanson, putting her ahead of Clive Palmer at number three and Campbell Newman at number four. Nonetheless, One Nation directs preferences to Labor ahead of the National Liberal Party in Longman, which helped tip the outcome in favor of Labor when the party last won the seat in 2016. conversely, preferences are directed towards Warren Entsch in Leichhardt, contrary to suggestions. he would be among a number of Liberal moderates targeted over a sixth placement on the Liberals’ Tasmanian ticket. These turned out to be Bridget Archer in Bass, James Stewart in Sturt, Tim Wilson in Goldstein and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney, with only the former appearing to be a seat where the party is likely to attract much support. It is unclear from the media whether the Teal Independents are ahead of the Liberals in Goldstein and North Sydney.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional professor of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has been around in one form or another since 2004 and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe



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