Louth Online http://louthonline.com/ Sun, 26 Sep 2021 02:27:50 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8 http://louthonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/louthonline-icon-70x70.png Louth Online http://louthonline.com/ 32 32 Price cannibalization threatens PV growth – pv magazine Australia http://louthonline.com/price-cannibalization-threatens-pv-growth-pv-magazine-australia/ http://louthonline.com/price-cannibalization-threatens-pv-growth-pv-magazine-australia/#respond Sat, 25 Sep 2021 22:00:43 +0000 http://louthonline.com/price-cannibalization-threatens-pv-growth-pv-magazine-australia/

From pv magazine 09/2021

Significant market price fluctuations and risks will threaten investor appetite, which could hamper long-term large-scale deployment of solar energy. This has already been seen in California, with Karen Edson’s famous “duck curve” in 2012 showing the disconnect between production and demand. Already, the increase in renewable energy penetration in the state, up to 26% of the energy market, has resulted in yields falling by around 30%.

Jenny Chase, head of solar energy at BloombergNEF, believes this is an important issue for all markets experiencing rapid solar penetration and a threat to a solar future without subsidies. “Large-scale solar generation lowers electricity prices, which can reach zero or even negative points during sunny periods,” Chase said. “It’s not an imaginary problem, and it’s not a market design problem – the only way to solve this problem is to shift demand.”

Michele Scolaro, senior analyst at Aurora Energy Research, agrees that price cannibalization is a risk for developers of non-subsidy solar projects. “Due to its nature, price cannibalization first hit markets where the business case for merchant projects was stronger, as solar PV penetration increased and eroded income captured by assets,” he said. declared Scolaro to pv magazine.

APP mitigation

One obvious solution is power purchase agreements (PPAs). Under these contracts, the price risk is partly transferred to the buyer, thus facilitating the financing of the project. For renewable energy developers like BayWa re, most of the corporate PPAs they undertake are subsidy free, which means the company is exposed to market fluctuations.

Benedikt Ortmann, global head of solar projects at BayWa re, said the reduction and negative prices are concerns. However, he pointed out that normal market fluctuations depend on so many variables at any given time across the electricity market as a whole. The reality is that solar developers are “the generators producing the cheapest source of electricity.” Ortmann added that there are already measures to counter these market challenges.

LevelTen Energy produces the P25 Index, a quarterly PPA price update. It showed that Spain was the fastest growing market in Europe in the second quarter of this year, succeeding Italy in the first quarter. One in three offers on its marketplace concerned Spanish projects. A change in the average PPA price sparked the latest cannibalization discussion. In the second quarter of 2021, renewable PPA prices for Europe remained broadly stable, as in previous quarters, but the Spanish supply prices of P25 solar PPAs fell 10.3% to 30.50 € / MWh (AU $ 50 / MWh).

The reasons for the fall in prices for Spanish projects range from the obvious, including an abundance of resources during midday hours, to a mature industry with a strong pipeline, as well as competition. Luis López-Polín, senior director of business development at LevelTen Energy, said another factor is that an increasing number of companies are using the competitiveness of the Spanish markets to obtain a pan-European PPA on favorable terms.

Chase agrees that project life PPAs provide a different experience to the spot market, but cautions that buyers are increasingly aware of the potential price differential and are considering short-term contracts at around € 35 / MWh. (AU $ 56 / MWh). “You have to be really optimistic about the residual value of the investment,” she said.

It’s not all bad news, however. For example, prices for the Danish supply of PPA solar P25 increased by more than 14% in the second quarter. “Investors in commercial solar power may see this as a near-term concern today,” said Harald Överholm, CEO of Nordic supplier PPA Alight. “We don’t see this as a major issue for investors in Northern Europe, and not for contract solar construction which accounts for the bulk of solar deployment in these markets. “

Georgios Gkiaouris, regional director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said that while price cannibalization is not yet seen in the EBRD region, the bank expects to see if the price of electricity continues to be fixed by marginal cost. “We expect the catch price to be lower than the average wholesale price,” he said. “Our projects have a lifespan of 20 to 25 years, so we already take that into account.

Like other risks, however, price cannibalization can be fought. “It is important for developers to quantify this risk,” said Scolaro. “Price cannibalization will have an impact on markets… depending on factors such as solar PV penetration, market size, interconnection with neighboring markets, etc.

The likelihood of reduction and negative pricing is already built into the project cash flow estimates. Mike Bammel, managing director of JLL Valuation Advisory, said all investors want the highest price for the lowest risk. If Bammel admits to having seen a drop in yield on solar, he hesitates to make a concrete figure. He stressed the need to take a longer-term perspective, especially with regard to the growing pressure on the US market due to carbon and ESG concerns from investors keen to protect or improve their climate position.

Sector coupling

Dan Bates, CEO of clean energy provider Rebel Energy, said solar should be seen as part of a bigger whole. He says: “Solar is part of a larger whole – the question is how it combines with wind, batteries, electric vehicles, etc. “, He noted.

The next solution to the cannibalization problem is revenue stacking, with storage being a key differentiator. “Cannibalization will happen, and its effect will stay with us. Therefore, looking to the future, we need to channel investments into innovative technologies designed to provide flexibility measures, ”said Merce Labordona, senior policy analyst at SolarPowerEurope. “We need to maximize sector coupling, adopt the right mechanisms to encourage renewable energy production to respond to market signals for flexibility and provide incentives for end users to absorb the excess supply. “

A smart grid with storage can enable the movement and aggregation of demand, while the sector coupling of combined projects of desalination, water treatment, agriculture, local deliveries with electric vehicles, etc. could be transformational.

Ortmann is clear in his belief that the market will respond to quality over time. In terms of environmental impact, sustainability and price, he thinks solar still beats the alternatives. While batteries represent a larger investment for solar projects, BayWa re, for example, is already applying for battery permits from its factories, even though they do not plan to integrate storage immediately.

Gkiaouris said that in many markets integration should focus on connectors, system balance, and rule synchronization. However, to combat cannibalization, the market needs to see new business models and explorations of how solar power plants can be remunerated, based on storage, carbon costs, and potential changes in system pricing. .

This is increasingly important as the question of cost and value is reassessed in many sectors, beyond the potential impact of carbon. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, for example, already has policies in place to factor social benefits such as air quality into pricing. This will play out in the utility market, rather than the wholesale market, and will become increasingly important as solar power grows in the United States. The Federal Energy Information Administration’s long-term plan is 45 GW of solar power, at about 50% of new capacity additions. Maintaining the Local Generation Tax Credit (PTC) will also benefit long-term stable solar growth in the United States.

Regulatory risk plays a big role in the solar market and the biggest danger is a change in thought leadership. “Usually there is a call to action, although it may be difficult how the powers that be implementing the necessary changes,” Bammel said. He adds that regulatory risk is just one of many market risks, with new or renewed government support in regions that need to make more climate ambitions a positive consideration on the rise.

While there are reasonable concerns about cannibalization, Ortmann said, these are the challenges that come with a more mature market. Identifying and managing market risks is a positive and necessary step. The price of carbon is already playing an important role in the growth of solar PPAs and the days of the separate sale of green certificates and electricity seem a distant memory.

No matter what happens, the focus is so much on decarbonization that LevelTen’s López-Polín believes governments and industry will find a way to continue the deployment. He added that we envision a fundamental shift in market dynamics – corporate PPAs are signed due to long-term sustainability goals and it is still not clear whether cannibalization will have a major impact or not.

Chase, meanwhile, warned that investors today must be optimistic about financing solar power: “We all have to be optimistic to have a future.”

Author: Felicia Jackson


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A new objective for the start-up investment http://louthonline.com/a-new-objective-for-the-start-up-investment/ http://louthonline.com/a-new-objective-for-the-start-up-investment/#respond Sat, 25 Sep 2021 01:49:29 +0000 http://louthonline.com/a-new-objective-for-the-start-up-investment/

IN the space of technological startups, where the emphasis has been largely on the development of technological solutions to fill the gaps in the market, the consideration of environmental, social and governance (ESG) issues is still somewhat of a priority. novelty.

Startups typically start on a small scale and start up until they’ve gained some traction and secured funding, which then gives them the space to expand their reach and, perhaps, look into ESG. .

But with investors increasingly determined to invest and build more responsible and purposeful businesses, the ESG journey could start much sooner for startups – which is working well for 500 Global Managing Partner Khailee Ng.

“Because 500 Global has seen how quickly many of our more than 2,500 start-up investments in 77 countries grow into big tech giants, we’ve decided to take a more proactive role by integrating our next 2,500 investments into their ESG journey.

“Today, American and Southeast Asian startups must have ESG policies in place in order to receive our investment.

“It’s a requirement. We believe that one day every startup pitch deck and business plan will have an ESG page. Startups might as well start now,” says Ng.

The venture capital firm’s (VC) portfolio today includes 35 unicorns – a company valued at over US $ 1 billion (RM 4.19 billion) – including Grab, Canva, Carsome and Carousell.

Ng notes that the VC is not alone in this movement. Although ESG is not a requirement of the majority of its $ 1.8 billion (RM 7.54 billion) in assets under management, many of its institutional investors are starting to encourage ESG by allocating their capital. to startups that have such practices.

Notably, there is a growing trend for institutional investors to relax their influence in ESG adoption, which encourages VCs to install ESG in their startups. This, according to Ng, would mean that VCs can be a powerful collective driver of widespread ESG adoption.

Locally, Malaysia Venture Capital Management (Mavcap) is also looking into this area as an investor.

“Given the renewed global push towards ESG standards as well as the growing global awareness of the urgent need to tackle climate change, there is indeed great potential in sustainable investing and this is expected to continue to grow. “, he indicates.

However, Ng stresses that it is important not to confuse ESG with sustainable investing or impact investing.

“They can be very different. For example, any company can and should integrate ESG policies. Some may express their ESG as “doing no harm”, while others may proactively regenerate the environment.

“ESG makes it easy to read and assess a company to see how aligned it is with your values. The ESG makes it easy to read whether they are indeed “durable” or “durable enough” according to the criteria of the investor, ”he explains.

It also addresses the misconception that sustainable businesses have a lower or longer return on investment (ROI).

“Our data shows that the opposite may be true.

“Our investments in the best performing seeds continue to generate returns on investment in the order of 10X, or 2,000X in less than 10 years. And, they are inspiring examples of sustainable development.

He cites several 500-backed tech giants such as Canva and Grab as examples.

“Canva is a mobile app that makes it easy for anyone to create digital designs. No paper is used, trees cut or environments damaged. Canva is worth $ 40 billion (RM 167.54 billion). The founders pledged to donate 30% of their shares to create a non-profit Canva foundation, eclipsing Australia’s largest foundation by three. “Grab is also worth almost US $ 40 billion (RM 167.54 billion). Their “Grab for Good” actions and policies explain how they approach sustainability at scale within their business, as well as in the communities they serve.

“We can also look at Bukalapak, the largest initial public offering in Indonesian history and how it is improving rural economies,” he explains.

The best ROIs, he adds, can generate the best ROIs for the company. And that should be the goal of the savvy investor.

“Each startup to which our investment has been proposed has also agreed to begin their ESG journey. Not a single startup has refused it.

“This included several Malaysian startups, as well as startups from the rest of the world. They receive role models, webinars, and tips.

“Together we are taking small steps as a tech industry, but we are very encouraged by the welcome.”


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Hit the raw rally with these 3 promising upstream companies – September 24, 2021 http://louthonline.com/hit-the-raw-rally-with-these-3-promising-upstream-companies-september-24-2021/ http://louthonline.com/hit-the-raw-rally-with-these-3-promising-upstream-companies-september-24-2021/#respond Fri, 24 Sep 2021 13:00:46 +0000 http://louthonline.com/hit-the-raw-rally-with-these-3-promising-upstream-companies-september-24-2021/

The business environment for exploration and production activities has improved significantly compared to last year, when the coronavirus pandemic hit the energy market hard. The price of oil jumped, brightening the outlook for upstream energy players.

Soaring oil prices

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is once again approaching the $ 75 per barrel mark, signaling a substantial improvement from negative territory reached last April. Improving demand for fuel, as coronavirus vaccines are rolled out on a large scale, is primarily contributing to the rise in crude prices.

Lower crude inventories are also supporting the rise in crude prices. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories for the week ending September 17 were recorded at 414 million barrels, marking the lowest level since October 2018.

With the return of refiners to operations after being affected by Hurricane Ida, and with the resumption of economic and social activities, the demand for oil may increase further. There will not be enough raw material supply to meet this demand for fuel, as drilling activity has slowed down, with upstream players focusing primarily on shareholder returns rather than increasing production. . Thus, improving fuel demand in a tight supply environment will continue to maintain the favorable crude price scenario for exploration and production companies operating in the prolific resources of the United States.

3 actions in the spotlight

Since picking the right companies with promising upstream trades from the stock universe is not an easy task, we use our proprietary Stock Screener to reduce three potential names to zero. All stocks have a Zacks rank 1 (strong buy). You can see The full list of today’s Zacks # 1 Rank stocks here.

Magnolia Oil and Gas Company (MGY Free Report) has a strong footprint at the heart of the low-risk and prolific Eagle Ford Shale and Austin Chalk formations. The company has set a production forecast for 2021, suggesting year-over-year growth of 6% to 9%. Thus, the increase in production in a context of favorable oil prices will improve the results of the upstream actor. Due to the positives, the company has gained 144.8% so far this year and is expected to grow further.

Whiting Petroleum Corporation (CMU Free Report), with its footprint in the prolific Bakken / Three Forks resource area in the Williston Basin, is among the largest upstream energy companies in the United States. The company has revised upwards its oil production forecast for 2021. Thus, increasing production in a context of rising oil prices will improve its results. The main exploration and production company, which has gained 126% so far this year, is expected to continue to grow.

Based in Dallas, Texas, Matador Resource Company (MTDR Free Report) has a strong footprint in the liquid-rich areas of Wolfcamp and Bone Spring in the Delaware Basin. The company increased production in the basin and produced record volumes of daily oil equivalent barrels from Delaware during the last quarter of June. By the end of this year, the company is expected to have 34 rough mined wells underway in the Delaware Basin.

Shares of this major upstream energy player have gained 183.4% so far this year, as the company expects its oil production to increase this year amid rising crude prices.


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Immuno-Oncology Market To See Feather Wrinkling At 12% CAGR Between 2020 http://louthonline.com/immuno-oncology-market-to-see-feather-wrinkling-at-12-cagr-between-2020/ http://louthonline.com/immuno-oncology-market-to-see-feather-wrinkling-at-12-cagr-between-2020/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 20:29:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/immuno-oncology-market-to-see-feather-wrinkling-at-12-cagr-between-2020/

The Immuno-oncology market will attend a 12% CAGR, reaching $ XX million between 2020. With medical IoT involving the use of portable monitors, devices and various integrated applications regarding healthcare needs, the healthcare vertical industry is expected to reach new heights over the coming period. This is what the health care vertical would be in the next 10 years.

Immuno-oncology therapy has shown excellent results in various clinical trials and in patients treated with immuno-oncology therapy. Immuno-oncology therapies can take advantage of patients’ immune systems and reprogram them to attack cancer cells, providing a safe and effective alternative.

There has been a growing demand for immuno-oncology therapy because several traditional methods used in cancer treatment such as chemotherapy, radiation therapy and surgery etc. carry a risk of side effects and have limited effectiveness because they tend to harm healthy cells present in the vicinity of the tumor microenvironment.

Planning for the future? Get access to a sample report on the Immuno-Oncology Market! https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/samples/11329

Company Profiles

  • Amgen, Inc.
  • AstraZeneca Plc
  • Bristol-Myers Squibb Company
  • Hoffmann-La Roche Ltée.
  • Merck & Co., Inc.
  • Novartis AG
  • Pfizer Inc.

Global sales of products used in immuno-oncology therapy are expected to reach around US $ 10 billion in revenue by the end of 2019, new research study from Persistence Market Research (PMR) reveals.

According to the report, the immuno-oncology market is expected to grow approximately 12% year-over-year by the end of 2020, primarily influenced by recent advancements in the immuno-oncology market. Immune checkpoint inhibitors are the most widely used immuno-oncology therapy for the treatment of lung cancer and account for approximately 88% of the immuno-oncology market.

Increase clinical developments to stimulate demand for immuno-oncology therapy

Currently, the number of ongoing studies on the clinical development of immuno-oncology therapy is almost evenly distributed between the early and late phases.

However, the number of early phase studies in immuno-oncology is increasing rapidly. The strong emphasis on identifying new pathways for immune regulation in tumors is driving the development of NMEs (new molecular entities), which are making their way into clinics.

High attrition rates during clinical development mean that fewer candidates enter later stages of development. The companies are also seeking regulatory approvals for combination therapies with existing immuno-oncology drugs as well as for multiple indications, resulting in a large number of programs in the early stages of development. This is leading to the overall growth of the Immuno-Oncology market globally.

How about revitalizing the strategy-driven funnel to stay ahead in the immuno-oncology market? https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/methodology/11329

Partnerships and collaborations to strengthen technical expertise

Companies are looking for licensing agreements, partnerships and collaborations to strengthen their technical expertise and expand their product portfolios. In order to stay competitive, Immuno-Oncology market players are trying to identify and collaborate with small companies operating in Immuno-Oncology market to grow their business globally.

This strategy of market players is expected to fuel the growth of the Immuno-Oncology market during the forecast period.

Combination Therapies Versus Monotherapy To Drive Growth In Immuno-Oncology Market

Combination strategies using immunotherapy with radio, targeted antibodies, chemo, cryotherapy or with other immuno-oncologic therapies are likely to broaden the potential indications of various drugs. These combination therapies are believed to dramatically improve patient survival rates, as shown by limited clinical data compared to monotherapy.

Various companies have identified that multiple pathways are affected in tumor regulation, therefore seek to use combination therapy as a more effective method. These combination therapies are expected to contribute to the growth of the immuno-oncology market.

Thinking of introducing an offbeat product / technology to the immuno-oncology market? Go to “Buy Now” for our Immunoecology Market Report! https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com/checkout/11329

Immune Resistance Mechanisms Limiting Market Growth

It is desirable to maintain the prolonged effects of immuno-oncology therapies because there is a great possibility of developing immune resistance, which can degrade the duration of effectiveness of the drug. In addition, it is hardly feasible to develop a single therapy that works equally well in all types of patient populations.

Whereas different pathways are affected in different patients, resulting in limited efficacy for some patients whose immune system is regulated differently. According to PMR’s analysis, this is hindering the growth of the immuno-oncology market.

Access related reports:

Autologous Matrix Induced Chondrogenesis Market:

The Global Autologous Matrix Induced Chondrogenesis Market the value in 2016 is estimated at US $ 96.11 million and is expected to increase to US $ 186.4 million by the end of 2024.

Surgical Imaging Market:

According to the Persistence Market Research (PMR) report, the surgical imaging market is expected to experience moderate growth throughout the forecast period 2017-2026. The market is expected to grow at 4.4% CAGR. By the end of 2026, the global surgical imaging market is expected to reach $ 1,384.5 million in revenue.

Gastrointestinal Infection Testing Market:

According to the latest report released by the company, the global market gastrointestinal infection testing market is expected to be over US $ 490.2 million, in terms of value, by the end of 2026. The report further predicts that the gastrointestinal infection testing market will grow at a CAGR of 5.1% until 2026.

Autologous Conditioned Plasma Therapy Market:

Persistence Market Research predicts that, Autologous Conditioned Plasma Therapy Market will exhibit an impressive CAGR of 11% over the forecast period (2020-2030), valued at around US $ 1.2 Bn by the end of 2030.

About Us:

Persistence Market Research is here to provide businesses with a one stop solution to improve customer experience. It is committed to gathering the appropriate feedback after going through personalized interactions with customers to add value to the customer experience by acting as the “missing” link between “customer relationships” and “business results”. “. The best possible returns are guaranteed there.

Contact us:

Persistence market research
Address – 305 Broadway, 7th Floor, New York City, NY 10007 USA
US Phone – + 1-646-568-7751
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Sales – sales@persistencemarketresearch.com
Website – https://www.persistencemarketresearch.com


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Evergrande fiasco could hurt global economy http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy-2/ http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy-2/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 12:30:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy-2/

All eyes are on China’s Evergrande, the heavily indebted real estate conglomerate that has become a market obsession after global investors tuned in to its growing problems this week.

What’s happening: The company faces a crucial test Thursday, as it has a deadline to pay nearly $ 84 million in interest on a bond. My CNN Business colleague Laura He, who is following the story closely, reports that it is not yet clear whether Evergrande will make this payment. He had not commented on the closing of trade in Hong Kong.

Global markets have been rocked by the risk that one of China’s biggest developers could collapse. But concern may be less about financial contagion and more about the wider effects on the world’s second-largest economy, which was already slowing.

“China has the means to contain the fallout from the Evergrande situation,” Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “However, China is mounting problems for the future as trend growth slows and its rulers impose an increasingly authoritarian and controlling regime.”

Remember: Concerns about the pace of China’s economic growth have accumulated in recent months. An official survey of manufacturing activity fell to 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July. It was just above the 50 point mark indicating an expansion rather than a contraction, but still the slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic. Retail sales also struggled, rising only 2.5% last month from a year earlier.

Chinese authorities have attributed a slowdown in growth in part to the Covid-19 epidemics and flooding, which have kept people from traveling and forced them to suspend their summer spending. However, economists are increasingly convinced that the slowdown could persist.

One of the main reasons is the Chinese real estate sector. New housing projects, measured by floor space, fell 3.2% in the first eight months of the year.

On the radar: Tightening credit conditions as the government tries to ease the debt burden has played a major role in the industry’s recent downturn, according to Lucia Kwong, Deutsche Bank analyst. Now, there are fears that the fallout from Evergrande will make matters worse.

“While funding channels have remained open so far, developers may face additional liquidity pressure due to [repercussions] of the potential default of Evergrande, ”she wrote in a research note this week.

In June, Evergrande also had around 200,000 homes sold but not delivered to buyers, according to a Bank of America analysis.

Why it matters: China’s real estate sector is a key driver of job creation and accounts for around 29% of the country’s economy, which for years has fueled global growth. This means that a slowdown could have profound economic ramifications, not just for China, but for the world.

The real estate pullback also comes as Beijing attacks private companies, which Capital Economics said Thursday adds to the research group’s “broad pessimism” about China.

In an event for clients, its economists predicted that the country’s trend growth will slow to 2% by 2030, from the current level of 4% to 5%.

Japan, South Korea and other economies across Asia would suffer from a slowdown in China, according to Berenberg. European countries that export a lot of goods to China – Germany, for example – would also be affected.

Federal Reserve May Raise Interest Rates Next Year

The Federal Reserve is not ready to take its foot off the accelerator pedal. That could change soon.

The latest: If the economic recovery continues to progress as expected, the Fed “believes that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be justified,” according to its policy update released Wednesday.

The announcement raises the prospect of an announcement in November that it will ease $ 120 billion in monthly bond purchases, reports my CNN Business colleague Anneken Tappe.

Investors have prepared for this possibility. More surprising was the indication that the Fed could raise interest rates as early as next year, according to updated projections. Previous forecasts predicted an increase in 2023.

This could, however, depend on the trajectory of the economic recovery. The Fed, including the effects of the Delta variant in its projections, now expects weaker economic growth for 2021, with production up 5.9%, compared to the 7% it forecast in June. However, the growth rate for 2022 has been revised upwards to 3.8% from 3.3%.

Look at this space: Other policymakers aren’t waiting for the Fed to make a move. On Thursday, Norway’s central bank raised its key rate from 0% to 0.25%.

“A normalizing economy now suggests that it is appropriate to begin a gradual normalization of the policy rate,” Governor Oystein Olsen said in a statement.

The Bank of England, for its part, is not budging for the moment. The central bank kept its key rate at 0.1% on Thursday, although two members voted to stop bond buying.

Is the housing market starting to look more normal?

Outside of China, the housing market is on fire, with soaring prices preventing many first-time buyers. Finally, it may cool down.

Details, Details: US home sales fell in August, both from July and from a year ago, breaking two straight months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The surge in house prices was fueled by pent-up demand from potential buyers that built up during closings and the lifestyle changes people made during the pandemic, as interest rates remained very high. low, reports my CNN Business colleague Anna Bahney.

But now the effects of these trends are fading.

“The housing sector is clearly taking hold,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “Home sales are trying to get back to a normal level after the strong increase we experienced last year.”

Sales of existing homes, including single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2% in August from July and 1.5% from a year ago, according to The report.

And yet: sales for 2021 since the start of the year are 16% higher than in 2020 and up 12% from 2019. And prices continue to rise thanks to low inventory levels. The median home price in August was $ 356,700, up 14.9% from a year ago, marking 114 consecutive months of year-over-year house price increases.

Following

Darden and Rite Aid restaurants publish their results before the US markets open. Costco and Nike follow after the close.

Also today: The initial US jobless claims for last week at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: US new home sales data for August.

– Laura He contributed to the report.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2021 Cable News Network, Inc., a WarnerMedia Company. All rights reserved.


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Evergrande fiasco could hurt global economy http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy/ http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 12:30:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy/

All eyes are on China’s Evergrande, the heavily indebted real estate conglomerate that has become a market obsession after global investors tuned in to its growing problems this week.

What’s happening: The company faces a crucial test Thursday, as it has a deadline to pay nearly $ 84 million in interest on a bond. My CNN Business colleague Laura He, who is following the story closely, reports that it is not yet clear whether Evergrande will make this payment. He had not commented on the closing of trade in Hong Kong.

Global markets have been rocked by the risk that one of China’s biggest developers could collapse. But concern may be less about financial contagion and more about the wider effects on the world’s second-largest economy, which was already slowing.

“China has the means to contain the fallout from the Evergrande situation,” Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “However, China is racking up problems for the future as trend growth slows and its rulers impose an increasingly authoritarian and controlling regime.”

Remember: Concerns about the pace of China’s economic growth have accumulated in recent months. An official survey of manufacturing activity fell to 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July. It was just above the 50 point mark indicating an expansion rather than a contraction, but still the slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic. Retail sales also struggled, rising only 2.5% last month from a year earlier.

Chinese authorities have attributed a slowdown in growth in part to the Covid-19 epidemics and flooding, which have kept people from traveling and forced them to suspend their summer spending. However, economists are increasingly convinced that the slowdown could persist.

One of the main reasons is the Chinese real estate sector. New housing projects, measured by floor space, fell 3.2% in the first eight months of the year.

On the radar: Tightening credit conditions as the government tries to ease the debt burden has played a major role in the industry’s recent downturn, according to Lucia Kwong, Deutsche Bank analyst. Now, there are fears that the fallout from Evergrande will make matters worse.

“While funding channels have remained open so far, developers may face additional liquidity pressure due to [repercussions] of the potential default of Evergrande, ”she wrote in a research note this week.

In June, Evergrande also had around 200,000 homes sold but not delivered to buyers, according to a Bank of America analysis.

Why it matters: China’s real estate sector is a key driver of job creation and accounts for around 29% of the country’s economy, which for years has fueled global growth. This means that a slowdown could have profound economic ramifications, not just for China, but for the world.

The real estate pullback also comes as Beijing attacks private companies, which Capital Economics said Thursday adds to the research group’s “broad pessimism” about China.

In an event for clients, its economists predicted that the country’s trend growth will slow to 2% by 2030, from the current level of 4% to 5%.

Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies would suffer from a slowdown in China, according to Berenberg. European countries that export a lot of goods to China – Germany, for example – would also be affected.

Federal Reserve May Raise Interest Rates Next Year

The Federal Reserve is not ready to take its foot off the accelerator pedal. That could change soon.

The latest: If the economic recovery continues to progress as expected, the Fed “believes that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be justified,” according to its policy update released Wednesday.

The announcement raises the prospect of an announcement in November that it will ease $ 120 billion in monthly bond purchases, reports my CNN Business colleague Anneken Tappe.

Investors have prepared for this possibility. More surprising was the indication that the Fed could raise interest rates as early as next year, according to updated projections. Previous forecasts predicted an increase in 2023.

This could, however, depend on the trajectory of the economic recovery. The Fed, incorporating the effects of the Delta variant into its projections, now expects weaker economic growth for 2021, with production up 5.9%, compared to the 7% it forecast in June. However, the growth rate for 2022 has been revised upwards to 3.8% from 3.3%.

Look at this space: Other policymakers aren’t waiting for the Fed to make a move. On Thursday, Norway’s central bank raised its key rate from 0% to 0.25%.

“A normalizing economy now suggests that it is appropriate to begin a gradual normalization of the policy rate,” Governor Oystein Olsen said in a statement.

The Bank of England, for its part, is not budging for the moment. The central bank kept its key rate at 0.1% on Thursday, although two members voted to stop bond buying.

Is the real estate market starting to look more normal?

Outside of China, the housing market is on fire, with soaring prices preventing many first-time buyers. Finally, it may cool down.

Details, Details: US home sales fell in August, both from July and from a year ago, breaking two straight months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The surge in house prices has been fueled by pent-up demand from potential buyers that has built up during closings and the lifestyle changes people made during the pandemic, as interest rates remained very high. low, reports my CNN Business colleague Anna Bahney.

But now the effects of these trends are fading.

“The housing sector is clearly taking hold,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “Home sales are trying to get back to a normal level after the strong increase we experienced last year.”

Sales of existing homes, including single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2% in August from July and 1.5% from a year ago, according to The report.

And yet: 2021 year-to-date sales are 16% higher than 2020 and up 12% from 2019. And prices continue to rise thanks to low inventories. The median home price in August was $ 356,700, up 14.9% from a year ago, marking 114 consecutive months of year-over-year home price increases.

Following

Darden and Rite Aid restaurants publish their results before the US markets open. Costco and Nike follow after the close.

Also today: The initial US jobless claims for last week at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: US new home sales data for August.

– Laura He contributed to the report.

The-CNN-Wire
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Nehruvian vision of the Indian economy: where are we? http://louthonline.com/nehruvian-vision-of-the-indian-economy-where-are-we/ http://louthonline.com/nehruvian-vision-of-the-indian-economy-where-are-we/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 07:26:05 +0000 http://louthonline.com/nehruvian-vision-of-the-indian-economy-where-are-we/

India’s economy has been at a strange crossroads since the pandemic tore apart hidden wounds, and economists are desperate to find a way out. As the state of play, monetary review policies and indicator analyzes show, things are a bit out of whack for now. And to give you just a glimpse of where we were when the pandemic hit us, let me bring back some rather groundbreaking promises made to us, including that of a $ 5,000 billion economy, d ‘a global manufacturing center, etc.
Of course, we are a long way from achieving either of these goals. One thing, however, that it made me realize is that what we expect from the Indian economy is quite another. transition phase, like the one we had in the 20th century.

Well, what better way to do that than to have a deep insight into the past, where it all began, to come to terms with the economic and political limits time. After all, recently a lot of blame has been placed on the policies of the past, let’s take a moment to dig a little deeper and understand how and what really happened.

An economic research report published a few years ago by economists Hatekar and Dongre estimated that the most significant disruption to the Indian economy in the 20th century came during the Nehruvian era, centered around 1950. Let me remind you that it was around this time that the Country Planning Commission was formed, and the Second Five Year Plan which focused on Mahalanobis strategies revolutionized the growth of the country’s production, both in short and long term.

The Nehruvian vision of the Indian economy-

Let’s start from the very beginning. India’s postcolonial economy was as fragile as it gets, and well, the Nehruvian ideocracy was growth which is completely democratic, also called by growth economists as “Progress by consent”.

This was unique because the examples India at the time had to admire and learn were the Soviets, who ran on the backs of authoritarian rule, and some advanced economies whose primitive growth occurred in less people-led situations. If you are wondering how a political system influences growth and economic trajectory, let me map out the model for you.

India’s main goal for the post-colonial country was to eradicate poverty. Well, I guess eliminating would be too strong a word given the current situation, just say mitigate. And the way the rulers of the day believed it would be done was to increase income.

However, this increase in income can be explained by two parameters: sectoral growth and investment. What sectors are we talking about? Well, let’s sleep on it for a moment, because there’s something else we need to discuss first.

The political system and economic growth

As mentioned, the increase in income comes on the back of the investment. Now, as far as the Soviets are concerned, the rapid growth they achieved was due to the indefinite investments they were able to make in the economy. Why could the Soviets do it and not a country like India?

Well, as mentioned, the approach of the Soviet Union was that of a “Command economy”, where the investment could be decreed by planners and implemented by commissioners, as economic winner Pulapre Balakrishnan explained. This means that the economy will never run out of money to reinvest because the authorities could always force it.

In India, there was the ubiquitous private system that ran on profits and income, which meant that investment was a result and a corollary of growth. If there was no surplus margin, the investment would also stop. This is why a political system influences growth strategy so much.

Now comes the second part of the equation: sector growth. At the time of the discussion, Britain had hoisted the flags of the Industrial Revolution and boasted of the economy of world trade. Undoubtedly, the growth of the country’s nascent stages has been torn between two directions: industrial growth or agricultural growth.

The Nehru-Mahalanobis- model

The five-year plans introduced in the country’s transition period were based on this model, and while it has had its critics in terms of the idealistic economics of the voodoo economy, the “Plan framework” covered a very important point: to realize the importance of agricultural and industrial development, together.

The then Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, spoke very clearly in his speeches on the contribution that the agricultural sector would play in the growth of the country, and on how the realization of the potential of the sector in alignment with the growth industrial would make it possible to intertemporal distribution of benefits he so heartily claimed.

Therefore, in an economy with a very large market, abundant natural resources of all kinds and great availability of skilled and unskilled labor, building a strong and diverse industrial revolution in alignment with a solid foundation of consumer goods was a historical necessity, as explained by the renowned economist Raj Krishna.

Let me trace for you the relationship between agricultural and industrial growth. Even nominal growth of 3-4% in the agricultural sector would not have been possible without a high growth rate in industries that meet the input needs of a growing agricultural sector such as cement, bricks, pipes, pumps, electricity production and transmission mechanism, agricultural tools, diesel fuel, fertilizers, pesticides, roads, vehicles, etc.

Well, considerable growth of the industrial sector is not possible without a high rate of agricultural growth, as almost 50 percent of the modern industrial sector processed agricultural production or provided agricultural inputs.

You see, the link between industry and agriculture had been more indispensable than ever, and while much of the time and criticism was spent choosing between the two as a priority, the real economic value was to realize the the equal importance of both for each other and for the future of the country, which is explicitly emphasized in the second five-year plan.

Discovery of Nehru |  Trade Standards News

But what about the proponents of exporting our agricultural products for imports of capital goods from other countries at the time? Because let me tell you there were a lot of them. Well, there are two arguments against their notion. First, the very goal Mahalanobis set for himself was that of a perfect balance of payments.

It was understood from the start that if India maintained a balance of payments deficit, the fragile economy would soon collapse. This is one of the main reasons why foreign aid was mentioned so little in the country’s total public expenditure target. The second argument concerns the terms of trade at the present time.

The very requirement to facilitate such trade would require the maintenance of an agricultural surplus, to such an extent that after the food needs of the country, we have enough to export if not reinvest, and this achievement in itself required the position of have industrialists supporting the agricultural industry.

Do you see the loop we are referring to? The whole proposition of “export pessimism” precedes the argument in its very progression.

In summary, this excerpt from the old Speech by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru is enough the complete description of nehruvian vision and the lines the country has been working on, as follows-

“Planning has of course been done in other countries, but not through democratic processes. Other democratic countries have not accepted the planning. But the combination of these two is unique. We can learn from America and Russia, as we certainly should, but we cannot copy from them because India’s problems are theirs. India’s economic problems are unique, different.

We have always understood that the fundamental factor is the growth of agricultural production. Agriculture is fundamental to us because no matter how much importance we place on industry, unless we have an agricultural surplus, we cannot move forward in our economy. We cannot live on allowances from other countries. We always have to choose between the benefits that accrue today, tomorrow or the day after. From a country perspective, if we spend the money we have now on small, immediate benefits, there will be no permanent benefits.

There needs to be a healthy balance between the immediate benefits of today and the long-term benefits of tomorrow. All the money that we have invested in heavy industries is for the benefit of tomorrow, even if it also brings some benefits today. It will be a few years before this investment bears fruit… thus, our economic development strategy is essentially agricultural modernization and rain of our rural masses in the use of new tools and methodologies.

At the same time, it seeks to lay the foundations of an industrial structure by building basic or heavy industries, especially by producing electrical energy. Medium and small industries will certainly come on their train.

Well, a testament to India today is the roots established for the longer term benefits back then, and another transition that the Indian economy wants to achieve right now has to come to the as well. background of a strategically modeled plane.

Edited by Sanjana Simlai.


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Evergrande in China will be a “Lehman moment” http://louthonline.com/evergrande-in-china-will-be-a-lehman-moment/ http://louthonline.com/evergrande-in-china-will-be-a-lehman-moment/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 01:16:33 +0000 http://louthonline.com/evergrande-in-china-will-be-a-lehman-moment/

In his Daily market notes report to investors, while commenting that Evergrande is a “Lehman Moment,” Louis Navellier wrote:

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Letters, conferences and more on hedge funds in the second quarter of 2021

The role of knowledge in asset management

Actively managed fundsIs there a link between intelligence, knowledge and successful investment? At first glance, this may appear to be the case. Wall Street is known to hire only the best and the brightest. However, some of the most successful investors in the world have not attended the best universities in the world and do not claim to have an above average IQ Read More

Fed credibility

Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the cooling of these inflation figures gives the Fed credibility as to its prediction of “transitory inflation”. Overall, the August CPI was a very good surprise!

The Ministry of Labor also announced that import prices fell by 0.3% in August, proof that inflation can be “transient”, as the Fed has suggested. Export prices increased 0.4% in August, but it was the smallest monthly increase in 10 months, so there is some hope that inflationary forces are cooling down.

The big surprise last week, the Commerce Department announced on Thursday that retail sales increased 0.7% in August. Another example of inflation driving retail sales is that gasoline sales rose 2%.

Another trend reversal occurred on Thursday when the Labor Department said weekly unemployment claims reached 332,000.

Despite the increase in Covid cases last month, the consumer was clearly in the mood to spend money, since online sales increased 5.3%, furniture sales increased 3.7%, and general merchandise sales increased 3.5%. Retail sales have grown an impressive 15.1% over the past 12 months. You can’t keep the American consumer down!

Evergrand: a Lehman moment

Will China’s Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd (HKG: 6666) be a “Lehman moment” if Beijing allows what could be a default of more than $ 300 billion in debt?

Evergrande’s business accounts for around 2% of Chinese GDP, and the company’s shares have lost around 90% of its value. So at this point it looks like the worst case would be a controlled crash – bankruptcy and the dismantling of the company by the State, with assets absorbed by Western markets.

There is more evidence of a looming global economic slowdown. On Wednesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said retail sales rose only 2.5% (annualized) in August, a significant drop from the 8.5% annual rate in July. Real estate investment in China has slowed this year to an annual rate of 10.9%. When the Chinese real estate market cools, consumer spending also tends to slow.

Due to China’s domestic difficulties and the recent slowdown, the United States will continue to lead global GDP growth.

Evergrande

Favorable IWM configuration

While the trend for equities is likely to be down, the markets are looking to the future and have likely incorporated most of the pessimism. caused by these observed risks. Assuming there is progress on current headwinds, inflation, Fed policy, covid, it might behoove investors to carefully consider go long the russell 2000, where the majority of the shares are small national companies. It is perhaps the least well-owned sector with the most leeway.

The good thing about this investment setup is that downside risk is very well defined by looking at the cumulative chart of the Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM), which has been consolidating in a range of 20 points for eight months.

The Russell 2000 missed this year’s rally. As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 18% and the Nasdaq is ahead 16.7%, but the Russell 2000 has only risen 13.3% Considering that stocks at small and medium capitalization present the greatest investment risk, seeing this level of the market in the midst of so much difficulty is not only counterintuitive, it is starting to sound very convincing.

Heard and notable:

Amazon’s European branch was fined $ 885.9 million for “non-compliance with general principles of data processing”. The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) regulatory framework aims to give users more control over their own data – and lays the groundwork to impose fines on companies offering their services in the EU for breach of his articles. Source: Statista

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Food prices: the rising cost of bread http://louthonline.com/food-prices-the-rising-cost-of-bread/ http://louthonline.com/food-prices-the-rising-cost-of-bread/#respond Wed, 22 Sep 2021 15:50:09 +0000 http://louthonline.com/food-prices-the-rising-cost-of-bread/

Food price updates

Soaring natural gas prices put an end to the soda boom and crippled chicken production. Now fears are spreading that high fertilizer prices could inflate the cost of our daily bread, if they persist.

These concerns are justified. Fertilizers are one of the most important input costs for agricultural products; perhaps a third of the operating costs of grain production, Rabobank estimates.

Manufacturers depend on natural gas to harvest fertilizer components such as nitrogen, which is sucked from the air and turned into ammonia and urea. Hence the closure of some fertilizer factories.

Fertilizer producers generally sell at floating or fixed prices over relatively short periods of time. British farmers typically buy at fixed prices around June for delivery in late autumn, says AHBH, a non-ministerial public body. They buy refills at spot rates. This provides a kind of buffer against short-lived spikes. But a shortage of hedging tools and illiquid fertilizer futures markets make it difficult to fully lock in future costs.

There are possibilities of substitution, for example with old-fashioned manure, a by-product of mixed farms. But high-intensity farmers in the developed world typically buy the same volumes of fertilizer each year, passing some costs on to customers.

There is much more elasticity of demand from the low intensity fields of emerging markets. Governments and aid agencies sometimes subsidize fertilizers for welfare reasons here. A university study found that free products in central Malawi tripled use and increased household income. The agriculture branch of the United Nations notes that during the 2007-08 food crisis, fertilizer prices rose faster than food prices.

Expensive fertilizers and reduced yields are just two related factors that could drive up the prices of agricultural products. In the UK, labor shortages – from seasonal pickers to truck drivers – can ruin harvests. In the United States and Australia, erratic weather has exhausted nature’s bounty. China wants to increase its national food security.

Everything points to a rise in food prices to come.

The Lex team wants to know more about the readers. Please let us know what you think of the food price outlook in the comments section below.

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How AirBaltic is preparing for next summer – AirlineGeeks.com http://louthonline.com/how-airbaltic-is-preparing-for-next-summer-airlinegeeks-com/ http://louthonline.com/how-airbaltic-is-preparing-for-next-summer-airlinegeeks-com/#respond Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:59:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/how-airbaltic-is-preparing-for-next-summer-airlinegeeks-com/

How AirBaltic is preparing for next summer

The long and continuing circumstances and challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic are evolving and continuing to be pervasive as new scientific developments emerge. At the same time, the airline industry has strived to be constantly responsive and alert, adapting to overcome the obstacles of the dilemma. Demand for passenger travel continues to experience highs and lows, gradually increasing as travel restrictions are relaxed and more borders reopen.

While some travel security protocols remain in place, higher passenger load factors have encouraged several major airlines like airBaltic to hire more staff to deal with the increase in advance, as well as adding new flight frequencies while expanding its fleet in favor of more efficient aircraft.

Currently, 320 new crew members, including 120 pilots and 200 flight attendants, are expected to join us ahead of the summer holiday and pleasure travel season of 2022. The Latvian national airline plans to welcome to again the former pilots who were released from duty at the height of the Covid-19 predicament last year as well as the graduates of the airline’s pilot academy.

“We are delighted to see an increasing demand for travel and have launched several new destinations this year. As immunization coverage increases globally and travel restrictions ease, we stand ready to resize our flight operations. This is why we have made the decision to rehire our former employees and add new members to our team for the next summer season, ”said Martin Gauss, CEO of airBaltic.

Meanwhile, as the airline’s workforce returns and increases for its flight operations, the carrier intends to expand its fleet of Airbus A220-300s by the end of next year after having recently received its 31st aircraft, which was the sixth of the carrier’s seven deliveries expected this year. . The Riga-based carrier only operates this variant of the aircraft after strategically planning and deciding to phase out its older and less efficient Boeing 737s in 2019 and 2020.

Gauss added: “In 2022, we also plan to receive eight additional new Airbus A220-300s. By hiring additional aircrew now, we will continue our preparations to perform flights with a fleet of 40 aircraft that we expect to have by the end of 2022. “

Throughout the Covid-19 conundrum, airBaltic maintained its flight operations, which potentially played an important role in staying afloat and preserving its network of routes. In mid-September, the carrier announced that its current route network exceeded its 2019 offering. The airline currently serves nearly 90 routes from its hubs in Riga, Latvia; Tallinn, Estonia and Vilnius, Lithuania.

“AirBaltic connects the Baltic region with more than 30 different countries. Through a strong codeshare network of 24 different partners, many of which offer global connectivity, airBaltic passengers can easily reach many parts of the world, ”said Gauss, a philosophy accurately described by the carrier’s strategy. and the decision to receive more planes, pump hundreds of additional seats and strengthen its workforce.

Obviously, airBaltic is preparing to have a bigger presence across Europe and to be attentive to the current trends within the aviation industry. There is no doubt that passengers are also eager to travel next year and that crew members are needed to make the flights. However, it is imperative that airBaltic is aware of the new costs and smoothly reintegrates personnel and aircraft into operations.

  • Benjamin has had a love for aviation from a young age, growing up in Tampa with a strong interest in and playing with aircraft models. When he moved to the Washington, DC area, Benjamin was involved in aviation photography for a few years at Gravelly Point and Dulles Airport, before devoting himself to spotting planes only when traveling at other airports. He is a frequent traveler of the world, having been able to reach 32 countries, eager to explore and understand more cultures soon. Currently, Benjamin is studying Air Transportation Management at Arizona State University. He hopes to enter the airline industry to improve the passenger experience and loyalty programs while keeping abreast of the integration of technology at airports.

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