Export Pessimism – Louth Online http://louthonline.com/ Fri, 24 Sep 2021 18:13:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8 http://louthonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/louthonline-icon-70x70.png Export Pessimism – Louth Online http://louthonline.com/ 32 32 Evergrande fiasco could hurt global economy http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy-2/ http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy-2/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 12:30:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy-2/

All eyes are on China’s Evergrande, the heavily indebted real estate conglomerate that has become a market obsession after global investors tuned in to its growing problems this week.

What’s happening: The company faces a crucial test Thursday, as it has a deadline to pay nearly $ 84 million in interest on a bond. My CNN Business colleague Laura He, who is following the story closely, reports that it is not yet clear whether Evergrande will make this payment. He had not commented on the closing of trade in Hong Kong.

Global markets have been rocked by the risk that one of China’s biggest developers could collapse. But concern may be less about financial contagion and more about the wider effects on the world’s second-largest economy, which was already slowing.

“China has the means to contain the fallout from the Evergrande situation,” Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “However, China is mounting problems for the future as trend growth slows and its rulers impose an increasingly authoritarian and controlling regime.”

Remember: Concerns about the pace of China’s economic growth have accumulated in recent months. An official survey of manufacturing activity fell to 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July. It was just above the 50 point mark indicating an expansion rather than a contraction, but still the slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic. Retail sales also struggled, rising only 2.5% last month from a year earlier.

Chinese authorities have attributed a slowdown in growth in part to the Covid-19 epidemics and flooding, which have kept people from traveling and forced them to suspend their summer spending. However, economists are increasingly convinced that the slowdown could persist.

One of the main reasons is the Chinese real estate sector. New housing projects, measured by floor space, fell 3.2% in the first eight months of the year.

On the radar: Tightening credit conditions as the government tries to ease the debt burden has played a major role in the industry’s recent downturn, according to Lucia Kwong, Deutsche Bank analyst. Now, there are fears that the fallout from Evergrande will make matters worse.

“While funding channels have remained open so far, developers may face additional liquidity pressure due to [repercussions] of the potential default of Evergrande, ”she wrote in a research note this week.

In June, Evergrande also had around 200,000 homes sold but not delivered to buyers, according to a Bank of America analysis.

Why it matters: China’s real estate sector is a key driver of job creation and accounts for around 29% of the country’s economy, which for years has fueled global growth. This means that a slowdown could have profound economic ramifications, not just for China, but for the world.

The real estate pullback also comes as Beijing attacks private companies, which Capital Economics said Thursday adds to the research group’s “broad pessimism” about China.

In an event for clients, its economists predicted that the country’s trend growth will slow to 2% by 2030, from the current level of 4% to 5%.

Japan, South Korea and other economies across Asia would suffer from a slowdown in China, according to Berenberg. European countries that export a lot of goods to China – Germany, for example – would also be affected.

Federal Reserve May Raise Interest Rates Next Year

The Federal Reserve is not ready to take its foot off the accelerator pedal. That could change soon.

The latest: If the economic recovery continues to progress as expected, the Fed “believes that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be justified,” according to its policy update released Wednesday.

The announcement raises the prospect of an announcement in November that it will ease $ 120 billion in monthly bond purchases, reports my CNN Business colleague Anneken Tappe.

Investors have prepared for this possibility. More surprising was the indication that the Fed could raise interest rates as early as next year, according to updated projections. Previous forecasts predicted an increase in 2023.

This could, however, depend on the trajectory of the economic recovery. The Fed, including the effects of the Delta variant in its projections, now expects weaker economic growth for 2021, with production up 5.9%, compared to the 7% it forecast in June. However, the growth rate for 2022 has been revised upwards to 3.8% from 3.3%.

Look at this space: Other policymakers aren’t waiting for the Fed to make a move. On Thursday, Norway’s central bank raised its key rate from 0% to 0.25%.

“A normalizing economy now suggests that it is appropriate to begin a gradual normalization of the policy rate,” Governor Oystein Olsen said in a statement.

The Bank of England, for its part, is not budging for the moment. The central bank kept its key rate at 0.1% on Thursday, although two members voted to stop bond buying.

Is the housing market starting to look more normal?

Outside of China, the housing market is on fire, with soaring prices preventing many first-time buyers. Finally, it may cool down.

Details, Details: US home sales fell in August, both from July and from a year ago, breaking two straight months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The surge in house prices was fueled by pent-up demand from potential buyers that built up during closings and the lifestyle changes people made during the pandemic, as interest rates remained very high. low, reports my CNN Business colleague Anna Bahney.

But now the effects of these trends are fading.

“The housing sector is clearly taking hold,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “Home sales are trying to get back to a normal level after the strong increase we experienced last year.”

Sales of existing homes, including single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2% in August from July and 1.5% from a year ago, according to The report.

And yet: sales for 2021 since the start of the year are 16% higher than in 2020 and up 12% from 2019. And prices continue to rise thanks to low inventory levels. The median home price in August was $ 356,700, up 14.9% from a year ago, marking 114 consecutive months of year-over-year house price increases.

Following

Darden and Rite Aid restaurants publish their results before the US markets open. Costco and Nike follow after the close.

Also today: The initial US jobless claims for last week at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: US new home sales data for August.

– Laura He contributed to the report.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2021 Cable News Network, Inc., a WarnerMedia Company. All rights reserved.


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Evergrande fiasco could hurt global economy http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy/ http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 12:30:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/evergrande-fiasco-could-hurt-global-economy/

All eyes are on China’s Evergrande, the heavily indebted real estate conglomerate that has become a market obsession after global investors tuned in to its growing problems this week.

What’s happening: The company faces a crucial test Thursday, as it has a deadline to pay nearly $ 84 million in interest on a bond. My CNN Business colleague Laura He, who is following the story closely, reports that it is not yet clear whether Evergrande will make this payment. He had not commented on the closing of trade in Hong Kong.

Global markets have been rocked by the risk that one of China’s biggest developers could collapse. But concern may be less about financial contagion and more about the wider effects on the world’s second-largest economy, which was already slowing.

“China has the means to contain the fallout from the Evergrande situation,” Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “However, China is racking up problems for the future as trend growth slows and its rulers impose an increasingly authoritarian and controlling regime.”

Remember: Concerns about the pace of China’s economic growth have accumulated in recent months. An official survey of manufacturing activity fell to 50.1 in August from 50.4 in July. It was just above the 50 point mark indicating an expansion rather than a contraction, but still the slowest growth rate since the start of the pandemic. Retail sales also struggled, rising only 2.5% last month from a year earlier.

Chinese authorities have attributed a slowdown in growth in part to the Covid-19 epidemics and flooding, which have kept people from traveling and forced them to suspend their summer spending. However, economists are increasingly convinced that the slowdown could persist.

One of the main reasons is the Chinese real estate sector. New housing projects, measured by floor space, fell 3.2% in the first eight months of the year.

On the radar: Tightening credit conditions as the government tries to ease the debt burden has played a major role in the industry’s recent downturn, according to Lucia Kwong, Deutsche Bank analyst. Now, there are fears that the fallout from Evergrande will make matters worse.

“While funding channels have remained open so far, developers may face additional liquidity pressure due to [repercussions] of the potential default of Evergrande, ”she wrote in a research note this week.

In June, Evergrande also had around 200,000 homes sold but not delivered to buyers, according to a Bank of America analysis.

Why it matters: China’s real estate sector is a key driver of job creation and accounts for around 29% of the country’s economy, which for years has fueled global growth. This means that a slowdown could have profound economic ramifications, not just for China, but for the world.

The real estate pullback also comes as Beijing attacks private companies, which Capital Economics said Thursday adds to the research group’s “broad pessimism” about China.

In an event for clients, its economists predicted that the country’s trend growth will slow to 2% by 2030, from the current level of 4% to 5%.

Japan, South Korea and other Asian economies would suffer from a slowdown in China, according to Berenberg. European countries that export a lot of goods to China – Germany, for example – would also be affected.

Federal Reserve May Raise Interest Rates Next Year

The Federal Reserve is not ready to take its foot off the accelerator pedal. That could change soon.

The latest: If the economic recovery continues to progress as expected, the Fed “believes that a moderation in the pace of asset purchases may soon be justified,” according to its policy update released Wednesday.

The announcement raises the prospect of an announcement in November that it will ease $ 120 billion in monthly bond purchases, reports my CNN Business colleague Anneken Tappe.

Investors have prepared for this possibility. More surprising was the indication that the Fed could raise interest rates as early as next year, according to updated projections. Previous forecasts predicted an increase in 2023.

This could, however, depend on the trajectory of the economic recovery. The Fed, incorporating the effects of the Delta variant into its projections, now expects weaker economic growth for 2021, with production up 5.9%, compared to the 7% it forecast in June. However, the growth rate for 2022 has been revised upwards to 3.8% from 3.3%.

Look at this space: Other policymakers aren’t waiting for the Fed to make a move. On Thursday, Norway’s central bank raised its key rate from 0% to 0.25%.

“A normalizing economy now suggests that it is appropriate to begin a gradual normalization of the policy rate,” Governor Oystein Olsen said in a statement.

The Bank of England, for its part, is not budging for the moment. The central bank kept its key rate at 0.1% on Thursday, although two members voted to stop bond buying.

Is the real estate market starting to look more normal?

Outside of China, the housing market is on fire, with soaring prices preventing many first-time buyers. Finally, it may cool down.

Details, Details: US home sales fell in August, both from July and from a year ago, breaking two straight months of increases, according to the National Association of Realtors.

The surge in house prices has been fueled by pent-up demand from potential buyers that has built up during closings and the lifestyle changes people made during the pandemic, as interest rates remained very high. low, reports my CNN Business colleague Anna Bahney.

But now the effects of these trends are fading.

“The housing sector is clearly taking hold,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at NAR. “Home sales are trying to get back to a normal level after the strong increase we experienced last year.”

Sales of existing homes, including single-family homes, townhouses, condominiums and co-ops, fell 2% in August from July and 1.5% from a year ago, according to The report.

And yet: 2021 year-to-date sales are 16% higher than 2020 and up 12% from 2019. And prices continue to rise thanks to low inventories. The median home price in August was $ 356,700, up 14.9% from a year ago, marking 114 consecutive months of year-over-year home price increases.

Following

Darden and Rite Aid restaurants publish their results before the US markets open. Costco and Nike follow after the close.

Also today: The initial US jobless claims for last week at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Coming tomorrow: US new home sales data for August.

– Laura He contributed to the report.

The-CNN-Wire
™ & © 2021 Cable News Network, Inc., a WarnerMedia Company. All rights reserved.


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Nehruvian vision of the Indian economy: where are we? http://louthonline.com/nehruvian-vision-of-the-indian-economy-where-are-we/ http://louthonline.com/nehruvian-vision-of-the-indian-economy-where-are-we/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 07:26:05 +0000 http://louthonline.com/nehruvian-vision-of-the-indian-economy-where-are-we/

India’s economy has been at a strange crossroads since the pandemic tore apart hidden wounds, and economists are desperate to find a way out. As the state of play, monetary review policies and indicator analyzes show, things are a bit out of whack for now. And to give you just a glimpse of where we were when the pandemic hit us, let me bring back some rather groundbreaking promises made to us, including that of a $ 5,000 billion economy, d ‘a global manufacturing center, etc.
Of course, we are a long way from achieving either of these goals. One thing, however, that it made me realize is that what we expect from the Indian economy is quite another. transition phase, like the one we had in the 20th century.

Well, what better way to do that than to have a deep insight into the past, where it all began, to come to terms with the economic and political limits time. After all, recently a lot of blame has been placed on the policies of the past, let’s take a moment to dig a little deeper and understand how and what really happened.

An economic research report published a few years ago by economists Hatekar and Dongre estimated that the most significant disruption to the Indian economy in the 20th century came during the Nehruvian era, centered around 1950. Let me remind you that it was around this time that the Country Planning Commission was formed, and the Second Five Year Plan which focused on Mahalanobis strategies revolutionized the growth of the country’s production, both in short and long term.

The Nehruvian vision of the Indian economy-

Let’s start from the very beginning. India’s postcolonial economy was as fragile as it gets, and well, the Nehruvian ideocracy was growth which is completely democratic, also called by growth economists as “Progress by consent”.

This was unique because the examples India at the time had to admire and learn were the Soviets, who ran on the backs of authoritarian rule, and some advanced economies whose primitive growth occurred in less people-led situations. If you are wondering how a political system influences growth and economic trajectory, let me map out the model for you.

India’s main goal for the post-colonial country was to eradicate poverty. Well, I guess eliminating would be too strong a word given the current situation, just say mitigate. And the way the rulers of the day believed it would be done was to increase income.

However, this increase in income can be explained by two parameters: sectoral growth and investment. What sectors are we talking about? Well, let’s sleep on it for a moment, because there’s something else we need to discuss first.

The political system and economic growth

As mentioned, the increase in income comes on the back of the investment. Now, as far as the Soviets are concerned, the rapid growth they achieved was due to the indefinite investments they were able to make in the economy. Why could the Soviets do it and not a country like India?

Well, as mentioned, the approach of the Soviet Union was that of a “Command economy”, where the investment could be decreed by planners and implemented by commissioners, as economic winner Pulapre Balakrishnan explained. This means that the economy will never run out of money to reinvest because the authorities could always force it.

In India, there was the ubiquitous private system that ran on profits and income, which meant that investment was a result and a corollary of growth. If there was no surplus margin, the investment would also stop. This is why a political system influences growth strategy so much.

Now comes the second part of the equation: sector growth. At the time of the discussion, Britain had hoisted the flags of the Industrial Revolution and boasted of the economy of world trade. Undoubtedly, the growth of the country’s nascent stages has been torn between two directions: industrial growth or agricultural growth.

The Nehru-Mahalanobis- model

The five-year plans introduced in the country’s transition period were based on this model, and while it has had its critics in terms of the idealistic economics of the voodoo economy, the “Plan framework” covered a very important point: to realize the importance of agricultural and industrial development, together.

The then Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, spoke very clearly in his speeches on the contribution that the agricultural sector would play in the growth of the country, and on how the realization of the potential of the sector in alignment with the growth industrial would make it possible to intertemporal distribution of benefits he so heartily claimed.

Therefore, in an economy with a very large market, abundant natural resources of all kinds and great availability of skilled and unskilled labor, building a strong and diverse industrial revolution in alignment with a solid foundation of consumer goods was a historical necessity, as explained by the renowned economist Raj Krishna.

Let me trace for you the relationship between agricultural and industrial growth. Even nominal growth of 3-4% in the agricultural sector would not have been possible without a high growth rate in industries that meet the input needs of a growing agricultural sector such as cement, bricks, pipes, pumps, electricity production and transmission mechanism, agricultural tools, diesel fuel, fertilizers, pesticides, roads, vehicles, etc.

Well, considerable growth of the industrial sector is not possible without a high rate of agricultural growth, as almost 50 percent of the modern industrial sector processed agricultural production or provided agricultural inputs.

You see, the link between industry and agriculture had been more indispensable than ever, and while much of the time and criticism was spent choosing between the two as a priority, the real economic value was to realize the the equal importance of both for each other and for the future of the country, which is explicitly emphasized in the second five-year plan.

Discovery of Nehru |  Trade Standards News

But what about the proponents of exporting our agricultural products for imports of capital goods from other countries at the time? Because let me tell you there were a lot of them. Well, there are two arguments against their notion. First, the very goal Mahalanobis set for himself was that of a perfect balance of payments.

It was understood from the start that if India maintained a balance of payments deficit, the fragile economy would soon collapse. This is one of the main reasons why foreign aid was mentioned so little in the country’s total public expenditure target. The second argument concerns the terms of trade at the present time.

The very requirement to facilitate such trade would require the maintenance of an agricultural surplus, to such an extent that after the food needs of the country, we have enough to export if not reinvest, and this achievement in itself required the position of have industrialists supporting the agricultural industry.

Do you see the loop we are referring to? The whole proposition of “export pessimism” precedes the argument in its very progression.

In summary, this excerpt from the old Speech by Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru is enough the complete description of nehruvian vision and the lines the country has been working on, as follows-

“Planning has of course been done in other countries, but not through democratic processes. Other democratic countries have not accepted the planning. But the combination of these two is unique. We can learn from America and Russia, as we certainly should, but we cannot copy from them because India’s problems are theirs. India’s economic problems are unique, different.

We have always understood that the fundamental factor is the growth of agricultural production. Agriculture is fundamental to us because no matter how much importance we place on industry, unless we have an agricultural surplus, we cannot move forward in our economy. We cannot live on allowances from other countries. We always have to choose between the benefits that accrue today, tomorrow or the day after. From a country perspective, if we spend the money we have now on small, immediate benefits, there will be no permanent benefits.

There needs to be a healthy balance between the immediate benefits of today and the long-term benefits of tomorrow. All the money that we have invested in heavy industries is for the benefit of tomorrow, even if it also brings some benefits today. It will be a few years before this investment bears fruit… thus, our economic development strategy is essentially agricultural modernization and rain of our rural masses in the use of new tools and methodologies.

At the same time, it seeks to lay the foundations of an industrial structure by building basic or heavy industries, especially by producing electrical energy. Medium and small industries will certainly come on their train.

Well, a testament to India today is the roots established for the longer term benefits back then, and another transition that the Indian economy wants to achieve right now has to come to the as well. background of a strategically modeled plane.

Edited by Sanjana Simlai.


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Evergrande in China will be a “Lehman moment” http://louthonline.com/evergrande-in-china-will-be-a-lehman-moment/ http://louthonline.com/evergrande-in-china-will-be-a-lehman-moment/#respond Thu, 23 Sep 2021 01:16:33 +0000 http://louthonline.com/evergrande-in-china-will-be-a-lehman-moment/

In his Daily market notes report to investors, while commenting that Evergrande is a “Lehman Moment,” Louis Navellier wrote:

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Letters, conferences and more on hedge funds in the second quarter of 2021

The role of knowledge in asset management

Actively managed fundsIs there a link between intelligence, knowledge and successful investment? At first glance, this may appear to be the case. Wall Street is known to hire only the best and the brightest. However, some of the most successful investors in the world have not attended the best universities in the world and do not claim to have an above average IQ Read More

Fed credibility

Ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, the cooling of these inflation figures gives the Fed credibility as to its prediction of “transitory inflation”. Overall, the August CPI was a very good surprise!

The Ministry of Labor also announced that import prices fell by 0.3% in August, proof that inflation can be “transient”, as the Fed has suggested. Export prices increased 0.4% in August, but it was the smallest monthly increase in 10 months, so there is some hope that inflationary forces are cooling down.

The big surprise last week, the Commerce Department announced on Thursday that retail sales increased 0.7% in August. Another example of inflation driving retail sales is that gasoline sales rose 2%.

Another trend reversal occurred on Thursday when the Labor Department said weekly unemployment claims reached 332,000.

Despite the increase in Covid cases last month, the consumer was clearly in the mood to spend money, since online sales increased 5.3%, furniture sales increased 3.7%, and general merchandise sales increased 3.5%. Retail sales have grown an impressive 15.1% over the past 12 months. You can’t keep the American consumer down!

Evergrand: a Lehman moment

Will China’s Evergrande Property Services Group Ltd (HKG: 6666) be a “Lehman moment” if Beijing allows what could be a default of more than $ 300 billion in debt?

Evergrande’s business accounts for around 2% of Chinese GDP, and the company’s shares have lost around 90% of its value. So at this point it looks like the worst case would be a controlled crash – bankruptcy and the dismantling of the company by the State, with assets absorbed by Western markets.

There is more evidence of a looming global economic slowdown. On Wednesday, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said retail sales rose only 2.5% (annualized) in August, a significant drop from the 8.5% annual rate in July. Real estate investment in China has slowed this year to an annual rate of 10.9%. When the Chinese real estate market cools, consumer spending also tends to slow.

Due to China’s domestic difficulties and the recent slowdown, the United States will continue to lead global GDP growth.

Evergrande

Favorable IWM configuration

While the trend for equities is likely to be down, the markets are looking to the future and have likely incorporated most of the pessimism. caused by these observed risks. Assuming there is progress on current headwinds, inflation, Fed policy, covid, it might behoove investors to carefully consider go long the russell 2000, where the majority of the shares are small national companies. It is perhaps the least well-owned sector with the most leeway.

The good thing about this investment setup is that downside risk is very well defined by looking at the cumulative chart of the Russell 2000 iShares ETF (IWM), which has been consolidating in a range of 20 points for eight months.

The Russell 2000 missed this year’s rally. As of last Friday’s close, the S&P 500 is up 18% and the Nasdaq is ahead 16.7%, but the Russell 2000 has only risen 13.3% Considering that stocks at small and medium capitalization present the greatest investment risk, seeing this level of the market in the midst of so much difficulty is not only counterintuitive, it is starting to sound very convincing.

Heard and notable:

Amazon’s European branch was fined $ 885.9 million for “non-compliance with general principles of data processing”. The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) regulatory framework aims to give users more control over their own data – and lays the groundwork to impose fines on companies offering their services in the EU for breach of his articles. Source: Statista

Updated


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PETER YOUNG: New security pact finds friends and enemies – especially the French http://louthonline.com/peter-young-new-security-pact-finds-friends-and-enemies-especially-the-french/ http://louthonline.com/peter-young-new-security-pact-finds-friends-and-enemies-especially-the-french/#respond Tue, 21 Sep 2021 23:14:58 +0000 http://louthonline.com/peter-young-new-security-pact-finds-friends-and-enemies-especially-the-french/

SUCH is the continuous news cycle in today’s world of instant communications that what is high on the agenda today can all too easily be ignored tomorrow when it is overtaken by new events.

An important exception was Afghanistan. After recent wall-to-wall coverage, last week’s Senate hearings – in which the Biden administration was almost completely condemned for its poorly planned and poorly executed evacuation – were broadcast widely on television. Likewise, the media also fully reported the revelations about the recent drone attack that killed 10 civilians in Kabul. After insisting earlier that they were legitimate terrorist targets, the US military has now admitted it was a tragic mistake – and they still wonder why so many of their actions induce such hatred. in the world.

However, the media has now turned their attention to a famous new cause of enormous global significance that emerged last week – a major defense pact that precipitated a huge feud among Western allies.

At a virtual press conference on September 15 attended by Joe Biden and British and Australian Prime Ministers Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison, the US president announced a groundbreaking agreement between the three countries called AUKUS. Under its terms, the three nations will cooperate in the development of the first nuclear-powered fleet for the Australian Navy.

This is motivated by security concerns associated with increasingly aggressive measures and Chinese military expansionism in the South China Sea and the consequent need to defend the interests of the West in the Indo region. peaceful.

The historic trilateral defense and security pact will focus on military capability and is distinct from the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing alliance, which also includes Canada and New Zealand. This will involve information sharing as well as cooperation on a range of issues and, in particular, the provision of the technology and capabilities to enable Australia to develop and deploy nuclear powered, but unarmed submarines. nuclear. Australia will become only the seventh country in the world to have nuclear-powered submarines with a powerful deterrent capability; and Mr. Morrison has stated explicitly and firmly that the nation “is not seeking to acquire nuclear weapons or to establish civilian nuclear capability.”

The downside or downside to all of this is Australia’s cancellation of its 2015 multi-million dollar deal with France for the supply of 12 diesel submarines. The French reacted violently to the failure of this deal, and in the ensuing diplomatic storm they recalled their ambassadors in Washington and Canberra.

Their government sharply criticized the new pact and the way it was treated with the utmost secrecy and without consultation, and condemned Australia for breaching its trade obligations, describing it as a “stab in the back “- as well as other more colorful languages. which reflects the seriousness of the concern in France.

Australia was a strong trading partner for China, but relations have grown strained after supporting a global investigation into the origins of COVID-19. Apparently, he had felt isolated in the face of China’s growing military and economic aggression and influence in the region and concluded that the submarines he had agreed to buy from France were insufficient for ward off the threat posed by this. Instead, Australia needed nuclear engines that were faster, more stealthy, and didn’t require regular refueling – and overall, she was looking for heavier and deeper support than the United States and the United States. United Kingdom could provide to help preserve a stable and secure Indo-Pacific region.

For Britain, the AUKUS Pact is in line with the goals set out in the government’s foreign policy review last March titled “Global Britain in the Age of Competition”. The review recognized that while the United States will remain the United Kingdom’s most important ally and strategic partner – and that NATO remains the bedrock of defense and security in the Euro-Atlantic sphere – it was necessary to partially shift Britain’s attention to the Indo-Pacific region which was increasingly the geopolitical center of the world – countries like India, China, Japan and Australia, between others, which are home to a quarter of the world’s population and represent 40% of global GDP.

As for the United States, the timing of the UKUS is significant because it comes so soon after the country’s exit from Afghanistan which had raised doubts about the American engagement in the region. This is not the place to examine the broader foreign policy of the United States or its relationship with an ally like France, but AUKUS demonstrates a combined stance against China as a threat to the Indo-Pacific region which has enjoyed 70 years of prosperity, including that of China. It is also another indicator of America’s support for countries in the region like Japan, South Korea and Thailand.

As expected, China reacted strongly, saying that AUKUS risked “seriously undermining regional peace … and intensifying the arms race” while Taiwan hailed it as a response to the news. aggression from China. The pact is also important as it shows that the US and UK are ready to export nuclear technology in this way to a trusted ally.

China’s expansionism is currently the greatest global threat to Western security and it reassures that the United States is still ready to seriously engage in the Indo-Pacific region. Regardless of last month’s difficulties over the lack of consultation with US allies on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, the rest of the free world needs such US engagement – and AUKUS is a step in the right direction .

What happens to the loser in an election?

After the general election last week, it occurred to me that it might be interesting to look at the procedure – under the Westminster system of government – for the losers.

Based on research on the matter, it appears that there are no clear rules for the position of outgoing prime ministers after they resign. As a near-obvious statement, Britain’s leading think-tank, the Institute of Government, states that if an incumbent Prime Minister wins an election then he (or she) simply continues in office, and, if an election produces a clear majority for another party, then its leader becomes the new prime minister.

The outgoing prime minister officially resigns the morning after the election, although nothing is said about the resignation of the losing prime ministers from their party leadership, which should be the business of the party itself.

Britain does not have a written constitution in the sense commonly used around the world, which means that there is no single document defining the structure of government and its relationship with its citizens. The nation is therefore based on constitutional conventions. MPs are appointed on the basis of their ability to gain the confidence of the House of Commons, and this power to appoint them is one of the remaining prerogatives of the Queen who is normally informed of who can have that confidence. But there is nothing to suggest that a prime minister could be forced to resign as party leader after losing an election. There is also, of course, the issue of outgoing PMs who continue to exercise the functions of deputy if they retain their parliamentary seat.

As a point of historical interest, there are many instances of PM resigning due to a particular issue. For example, Anthony Eden was expelled in 1957 after the Suez debacle and, much more recently, Margaret Thatcher had to resign her post as Prime Minister in 1990 on the advice of her own cabinet because it was considered that she did not benefit. more support from the Conservative Party. . In 2016, David Cameron chose to resign after campaigning for Britain to stay in the European Union, but “voting leave” won the 2016 Brexit referendum. Then, in 2017, Theresa May resigned as prime minister after losing the Tories’ confidence in his handling of Brexit, but continued to sit as an MP.

It is also interesting to note how some opposition leaders reacted to the loss of an election. Ed Miliband, whose Labor Party was defeated in the 2015 election, said: “I take absolute and total responsibility for the outcome and our defeat in this election” and he resigned as party leader. In the 2019 election, when Labor suffered heavy losses again, Jeremy Corbyn said immediately after the election that he would remain in his post as party leader while everyone involved mulled over the outcome but did not lead the party to another general election. This sparked a leadership election which was won by current leader Keir Starmer. But Corbyn remained an MP after retaining his own parliamentary seat.

Earth savers at our doorstep

In London last Friday, Prince William unveiled a list of the top 15 finalists for his ambitious $ 75 million Earthshot Global Prize to help fix the planet over the next 10 years – and what a pleasure to report the wonderful news that a Bahamian group is one of those finalists.

The prince has reportedly been working on this project for three years. He was persuaded to launch it because of what he saw as the constant negative headlines and pessimism about climate change, and his aim was to inspire specific action beyond what governments were doing.

The Earthshot Prize initiative is designed to encourage innovative solutions to the world’s greatest environmental challenges. It is divided into five different categories and Coral Vita based in Grand Bahama was chosen as a finalist in one listed as “Revive our Oceans”. The 15 finalists were chosen from 750 nominations through a rigorous selection process. Of these, five winners will be selected and receive some $ 1.4 million in prizes, while all will receive personalized support from a network of private companies around the world. The winners will be announced next month.

A glance at its website shows that Coral Vita teams are working to restore the dying and damaged reefs. Based in Freeport, it was founded in 2015 by environmental entrepreneurs passionate about preserving coral reefs.

Coincidentally, I recently spotted a new study, conducted by the University of British Columbia, on the importance of coral reef systems. This study found that the coverage of coral reefs around the world has more than halved since the 1950s due to climate change as well as overfishing, pollution and other human impacts. He went on to warn that continued degradation of global reef systems would threaten the well-being and development of coastal reef-dependent communities.

So there is no doubt about the importance of Coral Vita’s work – and others will surely join me in congratulating them on being chosen among the finalists for the prestigious Earthshot Award.


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BOJ Tankan To Show Third Quarter Manufacturers’ Mood Slightly Lower From Second Quarter http://louthonline.com/boj-tankan-to-show-third-quarter-manufacturers-mood-slightly-lower-from-second-quarter/ http://louthonline.com/boj-tankan-to-show-third-quarter-manufacturers-mood-slightly-lower-from-second-quarter/#respond Fri, 17 Sep 2021 07:54:40 +0000 http://louthonline.com/boj-tankan-to-show-third-quarter-manufacturers-mood-slightly-lower-from-second-quarter/

(Corrects a typographical error in paragraph 8)

TOKYO (Reuters) – Business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers likely fell in the third quarter as the highly contagious variant of COVID-19 Delta hit business and consumer activity, the Tankan survey of the closely watched central bank.

Other data is expected to show that nationwide consumer staples prices were flat in August compared to the same month a year earlier, as higher energy costs and overnight stays offset lower prices. mobile phone charges, analysts said.

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment is expected to show the overall sentiment index for major manufacturers fell to 13 from 14 in June, the poll of 17 economists revealed on Friday.

“Sales of durable goods have been strong so far, offsetting a decline in the consumption of services,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Reduction in production by automakers due to a global chip shortage and parts supply difficulties due to the explosive growth of the COVID-19 Delta variant in Southeast Asia in the wake of the summer activity, he said.

The mood among large non-manufacturers was also likely to ease slightly, but avoid slipping into clear pessimism, coming back flat from plus 1 in June, according to the poll.

The forecast was in line with a recent data set https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-manufacturers-mood-falls-5-month-low-sept-reuters-tankan-2021-09 – 14 which shows that companies are facing new headwinds from the pandemic, which remain particularly painful for companies in the service sector.

This week’s data showed the country’s exports to be extensive https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-exports-extend-double-digit-gains-6th-straight-month-2021- 09-16 double-digit gains in August, although the pace of growth weakened as COVID-19 hit major supply chains in Asia and slowed factory output.

Japan’s economic growth slows https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-q3-growth-forecast-more-than-halved-covid-19-impact-2021-09-14 in current April to June quarter in part because of these disruptions, even as vaccination rates across the country improve and daily COVID-19 infections appear to have peaked.

For the next three months, optimism among large manufacturers is expected to improve slightly to 15, while the outlook index for large non-manufacturers is expected to rise to plus 5, according to the poll.

Large companies are likely to increase their capital spending plans by 9.1% for the current year as the outlook improves.

The BOJ will announce the results of the quarterly tankan survey at 8:50 a.m. on October 1.

The central bank is ready https://www.reuters.com/world/china/boj-maintain-stimulus-supply-disruption-darkens-export-outlook-2021-09-17 to maintain its massive stimulus on its September 21 – 22 political meeting, as supply bottlenecks caused by plant closures in Asia and low consumption weigh on the economy.

Separate data due Sept. 24 is expected to show nationwide basic consumer prices, which exclude fresh food but include petroleum products, were flat in August compared to the previous year, according to the poll.

(Corrects a typographical error in paragraph 8)

(Reporting by Daniel Leussink; Editing by Sam Holmes)


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BOJ’s tankan to show manufacturers’ mood in Q3 slightly lower than in Q2 | The powerful 790 KFGO http://louthonline.com/bojs-tankan-to-show-manufacturers-mood-in-q3-slightly-lower-than-in-q2-the-powerful-790-kfgo/ http://louthonline.com/bojs-tankan-to-show-manufacturers-mood-in-q3-slightly-lower-than-in-q2-the-powerful-790-kfgo/#respond Fri, 17 Sep 2021 06:27:54 +0000 http://louthonline.com/bojs-tankan-to-show-manufacturers-mood-in-q3-slightly-lower-than-in-q2-the-powerful-790-kfgo/

(Corrects a typographical error in paragraph 8)

TOKYO (Reuters) – Business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers likely fell in the third quarter as the highly contagious variant of COVID-19 Delta hit business and consumer activity, the Tankan survey of the closely watched central bank.

Other data should show that nationwide consumer staples prices were flat in August compared to the same month a year earlier, as higher energy costs and overnight stays offset lower prices. mobile phone charges, analysts said.

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show the overall major manufacturers sentiment index fell to 13 from 14 in June, the poll of 17 economists revealed on Friday.

“Sales of durable goods have been strong so far, offsetting a decline in the consumption of services,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Reduction in production by automakers due to a global chip shortage and parts supply difficulties due to the explosive growth of the COVID-19 Delta variant in Southeast Asia in the wake of the summer activity, he said.

The mood among large non-manufacturers was also likely to ease slightly, but avoid slipping into clear pessimism, coming back flat from plus 1 in June, according to the poll.

The forecast was in line with a recent data set https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-manufacturers-mood-falls-5-month-low-sept-reuters-tankan-2021-09 – 14 which shows that companies are facing new headwinds from the pandemic, which remain particularly painful for companies in the service sector.

This week’s data showed the country’s exports to be extensive https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-exports-extend-double-digit-gains-6th-straight-month-2021- 09-16 double-digit gains in August, although the pace of growth weakened as COVID-19 hit major supply chains in Asia and slowed factory output.

Japan’s economic growth slows https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-q3-growth-forecast-more-than-halved-covid-19-impact-2021-09-14 in current April to June quarter in part because of these disruptions, even as vaccination rates across the country improve and daily COVID-19 infections appear to have peaked.

For the next three months, optimism among large manufacturers is expected to improve slightly to 15, while the outlook index for large non-manufacturers is expected to rise to plus 5, according to the poll.

Large companies are likely to increase their capital spending plans by 9.1% for the current year as the outlook improves.

The BOJ will announce the results of the quarterly tankan survey at 8:50 a.m. on October 1.

The central bank is ready https://www.reuters.com/world/china/boj-maintain-stimulus-supply-disruption-darkens-export-outlook-2021-09-17 to maintain its massive stimulus on its September 21 – 22 political meeting, as supply bottlenecks caused by factory closures in Asia and low consumption weigh on the economy.

Separate data due Sept. 24 is expected to show nationwide basic consumer prices, which exclude fresh food but include petroleum products, were flat in August compared to the previous year, according to the poll.

(Corrects a typographical error in paragraph 8)

(Reporting by Daniel Leussink; Editing by Sam Holmes)


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BOJ’s tankan to show third quarter manufacturers’ mood slightly lower than second quarter http://louthonline.com/bojs-tankan-to-show-third-quarter-manufacturers-mood-slightly-lower-than-second-quarter/ http://louthonline.com/bojs-tankan-to-show-third-quarter-manufacturers-mood-slightly-lower-than-second-quarter/#respond Fri, 17 Sep 2021 06:02:38 +0000 http://louthonline.com/bojs-tankan-to-show-third-quarter-manufacturers-mood-slightly-lower-than-second-quarter/

(Corrects a typographical error in paragraph 8)

TOKYO (Reuters) – Business confidence among major Japanese manufacturers likely fell in the third quarter as the highly contagious variant of COVID-19 Delta hit business and consumer activity, the Tankan survey of the closely watched central bank.

Other data should show that nationwide consumer staples prices were flat in August compared with the same month a year earlier, as higher energy costs and overnight stays offset lower prices. mobile phone charges, analysts said.

The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) quarterly Tankan survey of business sentiment is expected to show the overall large manufacturers sentiment index fell to 13 from 14 in June, according to the poll of 17 economists on Friday.

“Sales of durable goods have been strong so far, offsetting a decline in the consumption of services,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at the Norinchukin Research Institute.

Reduction in production by automakers due to a global chip shortage and parts supply difficulties due to the explosive growth of the COVID-19 Delta variant in Southeast Asia in the wake of the summer activity, he said.

The mood among large non-manufacturers was also likely to ease slightly, but avoid slipping into clear pessimism, coming back flat from plus 1 in June, according to the poll.

The forecast was in line with a recent data set https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-manufacturers-mood-falls-5-month-low-sept-reuters-tankan-2021-09 – 14 which shows that companies are facing new headwinds from the pandemic, which remain particularly painful for companies in the service sector.

This week’s data showed the country’s exports to be extensive https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-exports-extend-double-digit-gains-6th-straight-month-2021- 09-16 double-digit gains in August, although the pace of growth weakened as COVID-19 hit major supply chains in Asia and slowed factory output.

Japan’s economic growth slows https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-q3-growth-forecast-more-than-halved-covid-19-impact-2021-09-14 in current April to June quarter in part because of these disruptions, even as vaccination rates across the country improve and daily COVID-19 infections appear to have peaked.

For the next three months, optimism among large manufacturers is expected to improve slightly to 15, while the outlook index for large non-manufacturers is expected to rise to plus 5, according to the poll.

Large companies are likely to increase their capital spending plans by 9.1% for the current year as the outlook improves.

The BOJ will announce the results of the quarterly tankan survey at 8:50 a.m. on October 1.

The central bank is ready https://www.reuters.com/world/china/boj-maintain-stimulus-supply-disruption-darkens-export-outlook-2021-09-17 to maintain its massive stimulus on its September 21 – 22 political meeting, as supply bottlenecks caused by factory closures in Asia and low consumption weigh on the economy.

Separate data due Sept. 24 is expected to show nationwide basic consumer prices, which exclude fresh food but include petroleum products, were flat in August compared to the previous year, according to the poll.

(Corrects a typographical error in paragraph 8)

(Reporting by Daniel Leussink; Editing by Sam Holmes)


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Coronavirus: New York judge temporarily blocks state vaccination mandate for healthcare workers – as happened http://louthonline.com/coronavirus-new-york-judge-temporarily-blocks-state-vaccination-mandate-for-healthcare-workers-as-happened/ http://louthonline.com/coronavirus-new-york-judge-temporarily-blocks-state-vaccination-mandate-for-healthcare-workers-as-happened/#respond Tue, 14 Sep 2021 21:48:38 +0000 http://louthonline.com/coronavirus-new-york-judge-temporarily-blocks-state-vaccination-mandate-for-healthcare-workers-as-happened/

Seven in ten travel agencies plan to cut staff once the UK’s job retention program ends, the industry body found, prompting the association to urge the government to review its testing requirements for those arriving in England.

The Travel Association, or Abta, the trade body that represents tour operators and travel agents in the UK, said new international summer holiday bookings for this year were down 83% from levels before the pandemic. Meanwhile, 58% of bookings with departure dates in July or August this year had to be postponed or canceled.

Almost half of UK travel agencies reported no increase in bookings in 2021 compared to last year, despite the success of the country’s vaccination program, Abta said, citing details of its members. The UK has vaccinated over 80% of its eligible UK adults against Covid-19.

Figures released Tuesday show that 69% of travel companies with staff on leave plan to make further layoffs once the government program ends this month. This is expected to bring job losses to nearly 100,000 in the overseas travel industry, and more than 226,000 when supply chains are factored in.

“Government travel requirements have stifled the travel trade this summer,” said Abta chief executive Mark Tanzer. He “needs to realize the damage his policies are causing to the UK travel industry and the impact they will have on the wider economic recovery.”

Fully trapped EU citizens were able to travel to the continent without the need for testing for months, unlike the expensive and complicated arrangements that have been enforced in the UK.

The government is due to review international travel requirements by Oct. 1, while its leave program that has helped protect many jobs is due to end this month.

Abta urged the government to ditch its three-tier system for an easier way to treat all destinations as open by default, keeping a short redlist to handle known variants of concern.

He called on the government to drop its requirements for fully vaccinated travelers to the UK to take a PCR test, which is currently mandatory for anyone entering England from abroad, even from low-risk countries.


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For Negombo in Colombo LRT, mixed development projects for 500 MUSD http://louthonline.com/for-negombo-in-colombo-lrt-mixed-development-projects-for-500-musd/ http://louthonline.com/for-negombo-in-colombo-lrt-mixed-development-projects-for-500-musd/#respond Mon, 13 Sep 2021 19:30:00 +0000 http://louthonline.com/for-negombo-in-colombo-lrt-mixed-development-projects-for-500-musd/

A memorandum of understanding has been signed between KCI Metro Link Korea Company Ltd and the GBK Consortium Ltd of the Republic of Korea to conduct a feasibility study for the construction of an LRT line from Negombo to Colombo (via the international airport of Bandaranaike) as well as several other mixed development projects.

This consortium is to use a concessional loan of approximately USD 500 million from the Korean bank EXIM for these projects in Sri Lanka.

The MoU was signed between Dr Parimalam Rajo Isa Michael, Chairman of KCI Metro Link Korea Company Ltd and Dr Byung Chun Shin, CEO of GBK Consortium Ltd last week in the presence of the Sri Lankan Ambassador to the Republic from Korea, Dr A. Saj U. Mendis and brought together more than 15 members of the Consortium.

Dr Michael, speaking EXCLUSIVELY to Daily News Business of Korea, said some of the key projects under this deal are the Negomabo Colombo Rail Link, the Ja-Ela mixed development on two acres of land, Export Village and Export Oriented Warehouse in Ekala, 150 acres Theme park in Bopitiya, hotel and recreation park in Bopitiya, Ragama Medical Village and City and a city hall in Negombo.

These megaprojects could transform the entire sphere of connectivity in Colombo District, thereby establishing greater connectivity between and among towns and villages in the district.

This mega development project could elevate Colombo District as one of the most efficient and connected districts not only in South Asia, but throughout the Asian continent.

Ambassador Dr. Mendis said that in advanced economies like Korea and Malaysia, or developing economies, connectivity or highways have played a critical, decisive and seminal role in the economic progress and growth of countries .

Dr Mendis said Sri Lanka at this point is very well placed and very well placed to receive Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII) since all foreign investments are protected by the Constitution of the United States. Sri Lanka.

Dr Mendis said that today Sri Lanka is where the Republic of Korea was located in the late 1980s, some 30 years ago.

“The key and defining attributes such as political stability, the rule of law, an environment conducive to investment, human and natural resources and potential, to name a few, are well pronounced and are present in Sri Lanka, making the country a potential Mecca for FDI and IFI in the region.

Dr Mendis also equated the current stage of the country’s economy with a stock / stock market, which is about to go up. “Most stock markets start to rise with skepticism, they rise with pessimism, they peak with optimism, and they collapse with euphoria.”

Dr Mendis urged and begged potential investors to seize and seize the opportunity of Sri Lanka’s stock market-like economy on the verge of rising, as Sri Lanka’s economy is at the first stage of its rise.


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